Bitcoin Poised for 2026 Breakout, VanEck Predicts

Bitcoin will be ‘top performer’ in 2026 after lagging this year, VanEck says

VanEck says Bitcoin could rebound in 2026 after a difficult period of relative performance in 2025, pointing to a widening gap between crypto and large-cap tech stocks.

In the asset manager’s recently published 2026 outlook, David Schassler, VanEck’s head of multi-asset solutions, wrote that Bitcoin is lagging the Nasdaq 100 Index by roughly 50% year-to-date, arguing that the current “dislocation” improves the odds of outperformance next year. VanEck also noted Bitcoin has trailed other major benchmarks such as gold.

Schassler framed the firm’s thesis around macro conditions such as monetary debasement and liquidity cycles. VanEck’s view is that the combination of valuation gaps and a potential shift in liquidity conditions could create a more supportive backdrop for Bitcoin after a turbulent market year.

Rather than calling for an immediate reversal, the outlook describes 2026 as a more mature phase for the asset. Schassler pointed to Bitcoin’s historical four-year rhythm, writing that the pattern “remains intact following the early October 2025 high.” Under that framework, VanEck sees 2026 as more likely to be a consolidation year—“not a melt-up” and “not a collapse.”

VanEck also highlighted data it says has historically coincided with stronger forward returns. The firm found that when 90-day hashrate growth has been negative, Bitcoin has delivered positive 180-day forward returns 77% of the time, suggesting that periods of miner-related strain have often been followed by better-than-average performance over the subsequent six months.

Beyond price behavior, the outlook places Bitcoin within broader structural changes in markets and infrastructure. VanEck argued that positioning Bitcoin as a potential top performer in 2026 reflects a shift away from purely speculative narratives and toward a role it describes as a pillar of a “new world economy,” tied to changes in capital flows, technology, and settlement systems.

For portfolio construction, the firm reiterated a disciplined 1% to 3% Bitcoin allocation, built through dollar-cost averaging and adding during leverage unwinds. It also pointed to ongoing shifts in the mining industry, noting that miners are expanding hash rate while investing in AI and high-performance computing data-center capacity.

Overall, VanEck’s message is that Bitcoin’s current lag versus tech equities does not, on its own, invalidate the longer-term thesis—and that a combination of reset leverage, improving (though still soft) on-chain activity, and shifting liquidity conditions could set the stage for stronger relative performance in 2026.