Markets Go Risk-On as BlackRock, Polymarket US App Launches, Crypto Green

Polymarket moves toward a regulated U.S. rollout as BlackRock frames crypto as financial infrastructure

Polymarket is expanding its push to re-enter the U.S. market, with the operator aiming to make more prediction markets available over time, including contracts tied to crypto, technology, and politics. The platform is not yet broadly live in the U.S. and still faces regulatory hurdles, but it has taken a significant step by acquiring QCEX, a regulated and licensed derivatives exchange intended to support a compliant relaunch.

Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and uses smart contracts, a design that helps keep transaction costs low while maintaining on-chain transparency. For users, participation typically requires connecting a crypto wallet and depositing USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin.

At the same time, large traditional finance players are increasingly treating crypto as part of core market plumbing. In its latest global outlook, BlackRock said crypto is no longer being treated as a speculative side bet, but as infrastructure that is reshaping how money moves. Separate on-chain observations included in the material suggest BlackRock is actively managing crypto-related liquidity amid redemptions, rather than simply holding assets passively.

The U.S. prediction-market landscape remains defined by regulation and enforcement risk. Kalshi, Polymarket, and other platforms face lingering uncertainty, even as event contracts have received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The material notes that Kalshi has faced enforcement actions from multiple U.S. entities, and it highlights longstanding concerns from regulators about certain contract types, including election-related markets, with the CFTC warning it cannot repair election-integrity damage after the fact.

Still, the regulatory temperature has shifted. The information provided says that since President Trump took office and appointed crypto insiders to oversee the CFTC, the agency has largely dropped lawsuits and investigations involving Polymarket and Kalshi.

Competition between the two platforms has also been shaped by their different starting points. Kalshi launched earlier, in 2018, and received CFTC approval in 2020, helping establish a “regulated rulebook” approach and U.S. access. Polymarket launched in 2020 as a blockchain-based platform on Polygon, emphasizing decentralized settlement and on-chain market mechanics.

Stablecoins and new U.S. legislation are another key variable. The material cites the Genius Act, a stablecoin bill signed into law in July, describing it as a potential threat to prediction-market operators by giving crypto companies “yield-like incentives” that traditional lenders cannot offer.

Polymarket’s growth has also sparked debate inside the crypto community about sustainability and market integrity. The platform reportedly secured funding at a $12 billion valuation, drawing comparisons to OpenSea’s peak in 2022 before the subsequent downturn. Critics referenced in the material point to risks including market manipulation, potential application of gambling rules, and possible future anti-money laundering requirements.

Despite these concerns, prediction markets continue to attract attention as a consumer-facing crypto use case focused on “information pricing.” One data point cited from BlockBeats News (Jan. 1) said the probability for the market “Bitcoin to rise to $100,000 by 2026” on Polymarket was 80%. Other referenced probabilities in the material show a more mixed outlook for 2026, including a 25% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end-2026 and 61% assigning a likelihood that it trades below $100,000.

Broader institutional context remains important for interpreting these markets. The material notes that BlackRock’s IBIT fund saw its largest monthly redemption during the period discussed, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift even among large holders. For prediction platforms seeking mainstream adoption, the combination of regulatory scrutiny, product expansion, and user education on probabilistic risk is becoming central to the story.

• Polymarket’s U.S. path: acquisition of QCEX and progress toward a regulated relaunch, though broad availability is not yet confirmed.
• Regulatory overhang: CFTC approval exists for certain event contracts, but enforcement history and election-related concerns remain in focus.
• Institutional framing: BlackRock’s outlook positions crypto as infrastructure, alongside signs of active liquidity management during redemptions.
• Industry debate: valuation, sustainability questions, and manipulation/AML concerns continue to follow fast-growing prediction markets.