Bitcoin Bear Market Confirmed by Key Data

ByNerd Bot

Bitcoin Has Entered A Bear Market, And This Data Backs It Up

Bitcoin is showing multiple signs consistent with a shift into a bear market, according to recent analysis from CryptoQuant and commentary from verified contributors on the platform.

A key signal cited by analysts is Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (also referred to as BCMI), a composite indicator designed to blend price behavior with on-chain momentum. Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on CryptoQuant, noted that the index returned to the 0.5 level in October, a zone he said has historically aligned with broader market transitions.

CryptoQuant also highlighted a demand-based warning: Bitcoin demand fell below its long-term trend in early October. The firm said this type of break has, in past cycles, acted as a bear-market signal, as it implies the market is no longer absorbing supply at a pace consistent with the prior trend.

Woo added that market data is increasingly aligning with conditions of past bear market transitions, pointing again to the BCMI returning to the 0.5 area on October 21.

CryptoQuant’s broader read is that the current cycle has moved into a new phase, with on-chain and derivatives data pointing to demand exhaustion and a transition into bear market territory. In practical terms, the firm tied the shift to several observable pressures: weakening demand growth, slowing ETF inflows, and signs of large investors reducing exposure.

  • Demand growth: reported to have decisively slowed versus the earlier trend
  • ETF flows: described as cooling, with ETF-related demand no longer expanding at the same pace
  • Positioning: indicators suggest “smart-money” selling and softer derivatives signals

In terms of market levels cited by CryptoQuant, the firm said intermediate support is anticipated around $70,000, which it framed as potentially implying a shallower downturn than in some prior cycles. It also pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price near $56,000 as a historical reference level that has acted as longer-term support in full bear-market conditions.

Separately, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has told investors he views the current environment as a bear market in disguise, arguing Bitcoin has been in “bear season” since the early months of 2025 even as prices previously reached record territory.

Overall, the shared conclusion across these views is that Bitcoin’s recent weakness is being reinforced by measurable shifts in demand, positioning, and momentum indicators—signals that, in earlier cycles, have tended to accompany the market’s move from expansion into contraction.

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