Demand-Driven Bitcoin Cycle: Price Isn’t the Driver, CryptoQuant Says

Bitcoin Cycle Defined by Demand, Not Price: CryptoQuant Head Says

CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, is urging market watchers to rethink how they define a Bitcoin cycle, arguing that demand—not price performance—should be the primary lens.

In a post on X and in comments made on the Milk Road show, Moreno said that “most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to.” He added that during previous bear markets, demand was “basically… contracting,” framing demand trends as a more reliable way to understand shifts in market regimes.

The comments come as CryptoQuant points to signs of weakening activity across several of its indicators. Moreno said most of the metrics tracked in the firm’s Bull Score Index turned bearish in early November and have not recovered. The index ranges from 0 to 100 and aggregates multiple on-chain and market measures.

CryptoQuant’s broader market read also highlights softening demand conditions. The firm noted that apparent demand growth—measured through net new buyer activity—has slowed sharply from early-2025 highs. At the same time, CryptoQuant said the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) has rolled over from elevated levels that have historically been associated with late-cycle conditions, alongside weakening momentum and difficulty reclaiming key psychological price zones after an October peak.

With Bitcoin starting 2026 trading around $88,000, CryptoQuant has described a range-bound structure as the most likely baseline scenario through the year, tying that view to “structural data” rather than short-term price swings.

The demand-first framing also reflects how Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved. In Bitcoin’s early years, supply dynamics played a larger role: issuance made up a significant share of daily volume, miners were forced sellers, and halving-driven supply reductions could create sharper supply shocks. In that environment, demand did not need to rise much for price to move significantly.

Now, analysts say institutional participation is changing the picture. Some market commentary included in the broader discussion describes Bitcoin in 2026 as being supported by a maturing institutional adoption cycle—including ETF and corporate treasury activity—that may be creating a steadier demand floor and contributing to lower volatility than in prior cycles.

That shift may also be making traditional cycle frameworks less useful as price gauges. As institutional investors account for a larger share of the market, CryptoQuant noted that the cycle is becoming a less reliable gauge of price. In parallel, LSEG data cited in the discussion showed Bitcoin’s correlation with the NASDAQ 100 more than doubled in 2025 as of Dec. 11, underscoring how macro and cross-asset factors can increasingly influence outcomes.

Other market observers are also questioning the classic four-year halving narrative. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, said the halving cycle appeared to start to break down in 2025, attributing the change to sustained institutional demand that reduced volatility and softened what had historically been a sharper post-peak correction.

While views differ on near-term direction, the common thread across the commentary is that liquidity, institutional demand, and market sentiment are becoming central inputs—potentially more important than cycle timing alone—as Bitcoin enters a market structure shaped less by retail-driven leverage and more by rules-based and macro-sensitive flows.