Early 2026: Hashrate Falls, Profitability Improves for Bitcoin Miners
Early 2026 tailwinds for bitcoin miners as hashrate falls, profitability improves: JPMorgan
JPMorgan said bitcoin miners could see improved conditions in early 2026 as network hashrate declines and profitability strengthens. The bank’s view ties miner economics closely to changes in mining difficulty and the concentration of computing power across major pools.
In its 2026 projections, JPMorgan expects a 2.6% drop in mining difficulty, which would reduce the computational competition required to earn bitcoin rewards. The bank then expects difficulty to rebound to 149T, a measure of the network’s aggregate mining challenge.
JPMorgan said these projections align with a bitcoin price of $91,000, while also noting that broader macro conditions could still influence outcomes. The bank highlighted risks including U.S. debt concerns and geopolitical tensions.
The commentary also pointed to shifting network dynamics that investors may watch closely. JPMorgan noted that hashrate consolidation is a factor, with about 38% of hashrate controlled by the top mining pools. Alongside consolidation, the bank emphasized monitoring difficulty trends, particularly the impact of sharp difficulty drops.
For miners, the relationship is straightforward: when hashrate and difficulty fall, the cost of competing for block rewards can ease, supporting profitability. When difficulty rises again, operational efficiency and scale tend to matter more, especially in a network where large pools control a significant share of computing power.
