XRP Nears $1 as Polymarket Odds Tighten
XRP fell to about $1.08 on Monday, reaching its weakest level since August after a broader crypto market sell-off. Bitcoin.com News reported that the move brought the $1.00 threshold into sharper focus, with a Polymarket contract assigning a 49% chance that XRP touches that level before November ends.
The decline followed a move below $1.10 late Sunday. While the pricing snapshots differ slightly across outlets, the reports point to the same immediate issue for the market: whether XRP revisits a round-number level that was last closely tested in August.
What happened
Bitcoin.com News reported that XRP first reached $1.10 late Sunday before slipping further to $1.08 on Nov. 9. The outlet said XRP had traded at $1.55 in early October, placing the current level after a substantial decline over roughly five weeks.
On Polymarket, a November contract was pricing a 49% chance that XRP falls to $1.00 by month-end, according to Bitcoin.com News. The same contract put the chance of a move to $0.80 at 6.9%.
BlockchainReporter placed XRP near $1.084 at about UTC on Nov. 9, down 6.48% over 24 hours and 13.06% over seven days. It reported market capitalization of about $68.9B and 24-hour trading volume of about $2.71B.
The outlet also described a sharp late-Sunday move during a wider market decline. More than $1B in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, BlockchainReporter said, including about $745M liquidated in one hour late Sunday as XRP moved from about $1.15 to about $1.11. Those figures cover different time windows and should not be treated as equivalent measures.
According to BlockchainReporter, XRP closed Sunday near $1.11, its lowest closing level since Aug. 19. It was the token’s fifth consecutive weekly loss, and the outlet put the decline from a Nov. 1 close of about $1.25 at about 11.2%.
Why it matters
The $1.00 mark is a visible round-number threshold, but it also sits near XRP’s Aug. 19 low of about $0.996. That combination makes the level relevant both as a recent point of market history and as the condition specified in the Polymarket contract reported by Bitcoin.com News.
The contract’s 49% pricing does not establish where XRP will trade. It shows how traders using that market were valuing the possibility of a $1 touch before the end of November. The much lower 6.9% pricing for $0.80 indicates that the contract distinguished between reaching the nearby $1 level and falling substantially below it.
The move also occurred alongside a reported retreat in derivatives markets. BlockchainReporter’s liquidation figures illustrate the scale of the broader market stress around late Sunday, although they do not by themselves identify why individual traders were liquidated or how much of the activity was directly tied to XRP.
Spot fund flows are another relevant measure. BlockchainReporter said US spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net flows on Nov. 6 and held about $1.34B in net assets, based on SoSoValue data. The outlet said the only weekly movement was a $529,500 outflow. Those figures place the price move alongside subdued reported activity in regulated XRP investment products.
Background and context
XRP is about 70% below its $3.66 record from July 2025. Its market value has fallen from about $210B to near $69B, making the current trading range markedly different from the period when it set that high.
The recent decline took place during a marketwide sell-off and alongside weak regulated demand. The reported lack of net spot XRP ETF flows on Nov. 6 does not describe all investor activity, but it provides one measure of muted demand in the US-listed fund channel.
There are minor differences between market snapshots. Bitcoin.com News reported XRP at about $1.08, while BlockchainReporter reported about $1.084. BlockchainReporter listed market capitalization at about $68.9B, while another snapshot described it as about $70B. Such differences can reflect timing and methodology, and the reports consistently place XRP near the same price area.
The August comparison remains central because Bitcoin.com News described Monday’s level as XRP’s weakest since that month, while BlockchainReporter identified Sunday’s close as the lowest since Aug. 19. Together, the reports frame the current range as a retest of an area the market has not meaningfully revisited for several months.
What to watch
The immediate question is whether XRP touches $1.00 before November ends, the event defined by the Polymarket contract cited by Bitcoin.com News. Market participants can also follow whether the contract’s implied probability changes as the month progresses.
Further reported spot XRP ETF flow data may clarify whether the zero net flows recorded on Nov. 6 persist or change. BlockchainReporter’s figures also leave open whether derivatives liquidations remain elevated after the late-Sunday episode.
Finally, the market will be watching how XRP trades around the Aug. 19 area near $0.996. That level is distinct from a forecast or target, but it is the closest recent reference point identified in the reports for the $1.00 threshold now receiving attention.
