StanChart Bets $10 ARB as Arbitrum Revenue Climbs

Standard Chartered Forecasts $10 ARB as Arbitrum Revenue Grows

Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of Arbitrum’s ARB token with a long-term price forecast that reaches $10 by the end of 2030, arguing that Arbitrum’s role as infrastructure for traditional finance firms moving on-chain could drive a meaningful expansion in protocol revenue.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, described Arbitrum as “the blockchain for TradFi,” pointing to its business model and its positioning among layer 2 networks—blockchains designed to scale Ethereum by processing transactions more efficiently while inheriting Ethereum’s security.

In its note, the bank characterized Arbitrum as one of the two dominant layer 2 chains alongside Base. It also highlighted Arbitrum’s ability to earn a rolling fee of 10% of net protocol revenue when third parties build chains using Arbitrum’s technology stack.

Kendrick pointed to Robinhood Chain, which launched using Arbitrum’s stack on July 1, as a key example of that model in action. He said the chain has been among the fastest-growing by value locked and estimated it could generate roughly $5 million in fees for Arbitrum in September, more than five times pre-launch levels. The information provided also cites Arbitrum monthly revenue reaching $5 million and daily transaction fees on the subchain exceeding $8 million at peak times.

The bank’s broader thesis is tied to growth in tokenized assets—traditional financial assets represented on blockchain networks. Standard Chartered forecasts the total market for onchain tokenized assets could rise to $4 trillion by the end of 2028, from around $340 billion today. For equities, the note forecasts tokenized markets reaching $750 billion by the end of 2028.

Standard Chartered also argued that markets currently assign Arbitrum relatively little value compared with layer 1 blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana, despite what it described as similar economic characteristics. Kendrick said he expects that valuation gap to narrow over time.

• Price path in the forecast: ARB at $0.50 by end-2026, rising annually to $10 by 2030.
• Revenue driver highlighted: licensing-style economics when new chains launch on Arbitrum’s stack, with Robinhood Chain cited as the primary example.
• Macro assumption: tokenized assets expand materially through 2028, creating demand for blockchain settlement infrastructure.

The bank also outlined key risks. Kendrick flagged the possibility of slower-than-expected tokenization and competition from rival chains. He also noted that ARB does not currently have a direct mechanism to accrue value from protocol revenue, though he said a buyback program could emerge as the ecosystem matures.