Bitcoin Dips After Monday Rally; Clarity Act Bets Fade on Polymarket
Bitcoin gives back Monday’s gain as Clarity Act odds fade on Polymarket
Bitcoin slid 1.7% since midnight UTC to $76,862, reversing a late Monday rally that had carried the asset as high as $79,427. The pullback coincided with a sharp drop in prediction-market expectations that the U.S. Clarity Act will become law this year.
On Polymarket, the implied odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 fell from 34% on Monday to 17% overnight, effectively halving. The move followed fresh political friction: Democrats submitted a counterproposal late Monday after rejecting a revised draft circulated by Republican negotiators on Sunday and billed as a final offer.
According to the information provided, the main point of dispute is not the bill’s market structure provisions, but ethics language governing officials’ crypto holdings. That shift in focus appeared to weigh on near-term confidence around the bill’s prospects, and the change in sentiment was reflected both in Polymarket pricing and the broader crypto tape.
The legislative calendar remains in view. The U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote at 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to invoke cloture on the Clarity Act, a procedural step that would determine whether the chamber moves forward with the measure.
Market breadth was broadly negative during the pullback. More than 90 of the CoinDesk 100 constituents were lower on the day, while equity futures were higher, reversing Monday’s divergence between crypto and traditional risk markets.
The episode underscores how closely crypto prices are tracking regulatory headlines. With U.S. market-structure legislation a central topic for the industry, shifting probabilities around a single bill can quickly translate into changes in positioning and short-term price direction.
