Bitcoin Halves September Gains as Spooky Season Looms

From Uptober to Spooky Szn? Bitcoin Cuts September Gains in Half

Bitcoin began October with a pullback that erased roughly half of its September advance, as selling pressure picked up and leveraged bullish bets were forced out. The move comes just as “Uptober” seasonality narratives typically re-emerge, but early-quarter price action has been muted across major tokens.

In the short term, market activity reflected a mix of day-trader selling, long liquidations and weakening momentum indicators, even as longer-term trend signals on the daily chart remain broadly intact.

Leverage played a clear role in the downswing. Roughly $429 million in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, with 87.5% of liquidations coming from long positions. When exchanges force-close leveraged trades that can no longer cover losses, the resulting market sells can add to downward pressure.

Technical measures show a market that is still trending higher on longer timeframes, but with a shrinking cushion. Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains above the 200-day EMA, a configuration many traders read as an intact long-term uptrend. The daily-chart “golden cross” is still in place, though it has started to recede on intraday timeframes as Bitcoin approaches the 200-day EMA line.

Momentum, however, has softened. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 45.8 from 52.5 the day before, slipping below the 50 level that often separates bullish from bearish momentum. At the same time, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator remained active, signaling compressed volatility—conditions that often coincide with a larger move once volatility returns.

Seasonality claims around October were also put into context by longer-term data. Over nine years of returns from the September 30 close to the December 31 close across large tradable coins, the results were mixed. For Bitcoin specifically, October performance has been positive in seven of nine years, but the broader fourth-quarter edge appears far less consistent, with a median gain of 5.4% cited as a more representative outcome than outsized years.

Early October trading has so far looked indecisive rather than strongly directional. As of October 3, Bitcoin was around $84,900, Ethereum about $2,684, Solana roughly $120 and XRP near $1.49. Versus September 30, Bitcoin was up about 1.6% and Solana about 1.5%, while Ethereum and XRP were described as largely unchanged.

The broader backdrop includes a strong September rally and shifting macro conditions. Bitcoin gained about 10% in September—its strongest September performance since 2012—supported by a late-month surge in demand as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.3 billion of inflows over just four days. But higher interest rates can compete with non-yielding assets by raising borrowing costs and improving the relative appeal of fixed income.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, described as the first hike since 2023. In this environment, attention has also centered on nearby price levels, including $85,000, which Bitcoin briefly exceeded in late September before retreating.

• What happened: Bitcoin gave back about half of its September gains as selling intensified and leveraged longs were flushed.
• Why it matters: The pullback highlights how quickly leverage can amplify moves, even when longer-term trend signals remain positive.
• Broader context: “Uptober” seasonality has historical support for Bitcoin in October, but the overall fourth-quarter pattern is less consistent, especially once outlier years are discounted.