Galaxy Sees Bitcoin Entering an Accumulation Phase
Galaxy Research says bitcoin has moved beyond the bear market that followed its October 2025 high and into an accumulation phase, a view based on improving price behavior, demand through spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and reduced selling by long-held coins.
The assessment is a research position rather than a confirmed market outcome. Bitcoin remains below its prior record level, while Galaxy’s argument rests on a set of indicators that it says resemble conditions preceding earlier advances.
What happened
CoinDesk reported that Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said the bear market ended in June in a note titled Why now is the time to add and hold BTC. Thorn characterized the period after the June low as an accumulation phase that had preceded prior bitcoin advances.
Galaxy’s case includes activity in the spot bitcoin ETF market. According to CoinDesk, spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC following the June low. Galaxy said that renewed directional demand had emerged as arbitrage activity declined, suggesting that ETF buying was serving a different role than trades designed to exploit price differences.
Yahoo Finance reported that Galaxy Research also cited a marked slowdown in bitcoin moving from older wallets. The firm treated that change as evidence that the crypto winter had ended. The report said bitcoin had rebounded from its June 30 low of $58,000 U.S., but remained about 35% below its October 2025 record high of $126,000 U.S.
The current drawdown was 53%, according to Bitcoin Magazine’s account of Galaxy’s report. It said Galaxy described that decline as the shallowest in bitcoin’s history and the first in which bitcoin’s price did not fall below the network’s realized cost basis.
Why it matters
Galaxy’s view centers on whether the available supply of bitcoin is becoming less responsive to selling pressure while institutional demand is absorbing coins. That distinction matters because spot bitcoin ETFs have created a channel through which investors can gain exposure without directly holding bitcoin.
In Galaxy’s framing, lower sales from wallets that have remained untouched for at least five years could reduce the amount of bitcoin coming to market. The research also links bitcoin’s fixed supply to concerns about U.S. fiscal conditions. Yahoo Finance reported that Galaxy said mounting U.S. debt and deficits strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency debasement, with federal debt at $40.44 trillion U.S.
That macroeconomic argument is one component of Galaxy’s thesis, not a settled explanation for bitcoin’s market performance. The same Yahoo Finance report noted that bitcoin had fallen below its key support level of $80,000 U.S. on a day when cryptocurrency markets remained under pressure from volatile markets worldwide.
The report also arrives as market attention can shift between bitcoin and other cryptocurrency themes. TradingView, carrying a Benzinga report, said Thorn identified periods when attention moved toward stablecoins and tokenization rather than bitcoin, a pattern he said had occurred before major rallies. That observation reflects Galaxy’s interpretation of sentiment rather than an independently established signal.
Background and context
Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000 to under $58,000 in June 2026 before stabilizing near $80,000. The scale of the decline provides the backdrop for Galaxy’s assertion that the market had already established a low point in June.
Galaxy argues that selling by wallets untouched for at least five years slowed to 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, from 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024. Its analysis says ETFs have absorbed supply during that period, while federal debt of $40.44 trillion supports the fixed-supply argument for bitcoin.
Ownership remains difficult to map across the network. Crypto.news reported that Galaxy’s October ownership snapshot found roughly 11.1 million BTC, representing 55% of bitcoin’s supply, could not be linked to known owners. Thorn said the unidentified amount may indicate that individuals still control substantial holdings through personal wallets, though the category could also include lost bitcoin, early-mined coins and institutional wallets that researchers have not identified.
Galaxy’s research also addressed quantum-computing concerns. Bitcoin Magazine reported that 7.1 million BTC sit in outputs with exposed public keys, while the report said no cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists. The publication said Galaxy pointed to BIP-360 entering the BIP repository in February and to its own $5 million quantum readiness commitment.
What to watch
Market participants will be able to assess whether spot bitcoin ETF holdings continue to grow after the 87,000 BTC increase that CoinDesk reported following the June low. They can also monitor whether coins held in older wallets continue to move at a slower pace than in 2024 and 2025.
Another open question is whether bitcoin can sustain trading behavior consistent with Galaxy’s accumulation thesis while it remains below its October 2025 record high. Galaxy’s characterization of the bear market as over is a conclusion drawn from its selected indicators, and the available reports do not establish a definitive end date for any market cycle.
The role of fiscal concerns is also worth following. Galaxy has connected rising U.S. debt and deficits to bitcoin’s fixed-supply narrative, but the reports do not establish how much that factor has influenced demand relative to ETF flows, wallet activity or broader market volatility.
